Another note on iPhone sales, a little worry about the EU and the App Store, and the next round of OS betas is already underway.
UBS analyst is negative on iPhone sales, still positive on Apple
Another Apple financial analyst is less bullish on iPhone sales. Not this quarter, of course. December quarter will be terrible. That said, a number of analysts believe that the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max sales missed this quarter will be reflected in the March quarter. Not all analysts agree, and you can add others to this list.
Apple 3.0 A portion of the note by UBS analyst David Vogt was released on Wednesday. Basically, he seems to think the wait is too long—it extends to the second week of January in the States. Delivery times are beginning to experience regular seasonal slowdowns, he estimates, causing “waste.” In other words, sales are lost, not sales deferred.
Vogt’s unit expectations for the December quarter fell to 79 million from 83 million. In the March quarter, it lowered unit expectations from 61 million to 58 million. All of this is enough to cause iPhone revenue to decline by around 3% in FY23. And that’s enough for Apple’s total revenue to decline by about 2% for 2023.
Sure, it’s less than ideal, but it’s still a fan. Mr. Vogt has a “buy” rating on Apple stock. He set a UBS price target on the stock at $180.
Apple Analysts Evercore Analyst Uncertain About Third-Party App Store/Sideload Talk
Sideloading and third-party app stores are not a business concern for Apple, according to several Apple analysts. I told you yesterday Bloomberg The report suggests Apple is gearing up for sideloading and third-party app stores — perhaps as early as next fall with the expected release of iOS 17. It will only be for EU member states, the article says. It’s a long shot, but money is money, and he likes to know when or if to worry.
Apple 3.0 fired a few reaction notes. We’ll start with one from Evercore analyst Amit Daryanan. It gives customers several reasons not to worry. Quoting his remark:
The impact of sideloading is likely to be minimal, and we expect the App Store to remain the primary avenue for app discovery as its less likely users become interested in this more complex method of app downloads. There are also significant security concerns with sideloading, which may give Apple some flexibility in implementing this feature.
He sees the EU’s insistence “that Apple allow third-party payment systems in apps…” as cause for concern, though Darianan doubts the average user would want to share payment information with more parties than connect to Apple’s payment system, Apple- Ma may be forced to lower the fees he charges to keep people from turning away.
Whatever happens in the end, the analyst doesn’t seem to see it as a big deal right now. Daryanani maintains an “Outperform” rating on Apple stock. Evercore’s 12-month price target for the stock is $190.
Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Woodring is as incomprehensible as Darianan. According to his note, he and his “do not believe this potential change poses a material risk to Apple’s App Store/Services revenues or the strength of the ecosystem.” The way they see it, even if sideloading and third-party app stores happen, and if all App Store users in the EU are screwed — bringing Apple’s App Store sales commission to zero, Woodring says: “That equates to just 4- S. % went to services revenue, 1% went to Apple’s total revenue, and ~2.5% went to Apple’s EPS.”
Needless to say, he can’t see it. Now, if legislation like what’s coming in the EU has gone global, Woodring says:
…the big question is whether users will decide to speak with their wallets and abandon the App Store for alternative options. Our survey shows that this scenario is very unlikely to happen, as Apple users have long prioritized the security, centralization and convenience that the App Store brings.
Woodring even sees changes to the EU’s app store as unlikely to hurt Apple’s stock. The threat of regulation may have acted as an “overlap” while regulation is a known thing.
Mr. Woodring has an “overweight” rating on Apple shares. Morgan Stanley’s stock price is $175.
Developers get access to a beta version of Apple’s OS
It seems like only yesterday that Apple released updated operating systems for just about everything they do. Of course it was the other day. And yet – a day after all these updates, the first builds of the next updates will be delivered to developers. MacRumors On Wednesday, several pieces of work were released for Apple’s development crew on various new builds. These included reports of iOS and iPadOS 16.3, macOS Ventura 13.2, watchOS 9.3, and tvOS 16.3.
Safety function testing
While it’s hard to get too excited about anything in such early betas, one promised security feature appears to be on its way. Another piece MacRumors It says that support for security keys for Apple ID has appeared in iOS, iPadOS and macOS developer betas.
Announced last week, Apple described the feature and then said:
Security keys enhance Apple’s two-factor authentication by requiring a hardware security key as one of the two factors. It needs it [the company’s] Two-factor authentication goes even further, preventing even an advanced attacker from obtaining the user’s second factor in a phishing scam.
This is probably a feature that any user can use. Still, the Cupertino-based company says it’s definitely intended for high-profile targets like activists, journalists, celebrities and government officials. And it is being tested.
Apple TV+ series “Dear Edward” will premiere in 2023
The limited-run Apple TV+ drama has received a premiere date. AppleInsider Has news about the series Dear EdwardThe first title to come out of Apple’s overall deal Friday Night Lights Created by Jason Katims. “Announced in February,” the article reads:
The series follows Edward Adler, played by Colin O’Brien, who survives a plane crash that kills all the other passengers on the flight, including his family. As she tries to make sense of her life after the tragedy, unexpected friendships, romance and community are formed.
Palmer Director Fisher Stevens directs the first episode. Other stars of the show include Taylor Schilling Orange is the new blackand Connie Britton of the series Nashville and of course) Friday Night Lights.
Dear Edward Premieres on Apple TV+ on Friday, February 3.
Apple TV+ announces two sports documentaries
Kissed like Becker?
There are two more Apple TV+ titles to tell you about – each involving a sports ball. First, the Cupertino-based company issued a press release Wednesday announcing a two-part documentary about tennis star Boris Becker.
To be honest, everything seems strange. According to the publication, “The Apple Original documentary series will include three years of exclusive access to Becker before its release in April 2022.” Criminal, but nothing terrible, it seems. The release said Becker was “sentenced to two and a half years in prison for concealing assets and loans to avoid paying debts.” According to the edition:
The untitled series aims to explore all aspects of the man who became a tennis sensation after winning Wimbledon at just 17, winning 49 career titles, including six Grand Slams and an Olympic gold medal, as well as his high profile. Profile, sometimes turbulent personal life.
I’m sorry… it’s been three years since filming, almost a year ago and they don’t have a title? Maybe they don’t want to tell us yet.
Not a title, but a lot of big names. Produced by Searching for a sugar manJon Batsek and Oscar-winning director Alex Gibney interview Becker himself, “members of his immediate family and tennis stars including John McEnroe, Bjorn Borg” and others.
Along with the lack of a title – the lack of a release date. The release doesn’t say when…whatever it’s called will hit the stream.
The football war has begun…
Finally, today I’m starting to think that Apple is in football. Mac Observer says:
Apple TV+ has announced a new four-part sports documentary called “Super League: War for Soccer,” which takes an intimate look at European soccer and the scandal that almost changed the game forever.
Did the incentive structure seem odd and controversial? I would read the description, but I’m afraid I’ll spoil it. Also, I’m afraid we’ll both fall asleep. However, the trailer is interesting. You can catch it on YouTube. I think I’d rather see an Aaron Sorkin movie about all of this. Then again, I’m not a football fan. Or a football fan. Or a football fan.
The documentary series precedes Apple’s Major League Soccer premiere in February. Super League: War for Football Launches Apple TV+ on Friday, January 13.
hey cool We get one of them.
today on the Mac Observer’s Daily Observations Podcast
Bloomberg says Apple is preparing iOS for third-party app stores and sideloading apps in the EU as early as iOS 17. TMO author Nick DeCourville joins me to talk about the potential pros and cons. Plus – Early gets a call from several financial analysts. That’s all for today on the Daily Observations Podcast Mac Observer.