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The MAC champion Toledo Rockets look to continue their high-flying streak when they head south to take on the Liberty Flames in the RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl. The Rockets have won each of the three previous games in this series, games played in Toledo in 1994, 2003 and 2007.
Related: College football predictions for every 2022-23 Bowl game
Those Rockets (8-5) lost their final two games of the regular season — each by one touchdown — but turned things around when they needed to. In the MAC title game, Toldeo held Eastern Division champion Ohio to just seven points, the Bobcats’ lowest total in 2022, as Toldeo won its first conference crown since 2017.
The momentum — or lack thereof — is a similar story for Liberty, which has started the season 8-1, with the lone loss (to Wake Forest) by one point. But the Flames enter the postseason anything but hot after losing their final three regular season games. Two of those losses — to UConn and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks — were by a combined four points before the Liberty fell 49-14 to New Mexico State in the regular-season finale.
One key to watch will be how Liberty handles interim head coach Josh Aldridge, who served as the Flames’ line coach and co-defensive coordinator as well as short stint coaching the defensive line during his four years at Liberty. The change follows the departure of Hugh Freeze to Auburn after four years at the helm of the Flames. However, recent reports also indicate that Freeze is considering moving Aldridge to Auburn as the Tigers’ next linebackers coach, so Freeze may be keeping a close eye on how the Flames perform on Tuesday night.
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty (8-4) vs. Toledo (8-5)
start: Tuesday, December 20th at 7:30 PM ET
where: FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
ᲕᲢᲚᲕᲕᲖᲦᲝ: ESPN
Live: fuboTV (start a free trial)
Distribution: Toledo -4.5
Tickets: Up to $28 at SItickets.com*
When freedom has the ball
Those five words are key because the Flames do pretty well when they have possession, but they’ve struggled to do so all season long. The Liberty are averaging over 400 yards per game in 2022, which puts them in the top half of the FBS. That’s largely thanks to a fairly balanced offense fueled by a ground game that averaged 180 yards per game, a top-50 mark in the FBS entering the bowl season.
Demario Douglas leads the Liberty offense this year, averaging over 110 all-purpose yards per game. Douglas needs just 23 receiving yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career as he heads into the postseason leading all FBS independent receivers in both receiving yards (977) and receptions (73). The fourth-year has been part of a dynamic duo with DeDeHunter, who is not short of all-purpose production (Douglas: 117.8 yards per game, Hunter: 113.6) and averages more than six yards per carry. . But Hunter suffered a knee-length injury at Arkansas on Nov. 5, so Shadro Lewis (492 yds, 7 td) and TJ Green (5.3 yrs, 43 rpg) will need to take a back seat.
However, going back to the earlier point, this is a Liberty team that ranks fourth in the FBS in 2022, giving up 11 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Nine of those picks have been thrown by Jonathan Bennett, who has completed at least 60 percent of his passes in four of his last five games but has yet to surpass 250 passing yards this season. Limiting — if not eliminating — turnovers will be critical for Bennett and Liberty to muster enough production on offense to have a chance Tuesday, especially against a Toledo defense that is tied for the MAC lead with 12 interceptions. Cornerback Quinion Mitchell is responsible for five of them and has thrown two of them back for touchdowns.
Even when not collecting medicine, Toledo boasts the best defense in the conference, allowing 331.8 total yards per game and just 185.5 through the air. Not only did both top-15 FBS marks enter the postseason, but it’s another indicator that the Flames will need to focus on keeping the ball and making the most of it when they have the football.
When Toledo has the ball
The Rockets offense has climbed to the top of the MAC leaderboards thanks to scoring over 32 points per game this season. But the team has scored 30 points just once in its last six games, going 3-3 during that span. Like the Liberty, Toledo also struggled with ball security, committing just one fewer turnover (25) than the Flames, though the Rockets played 13 games.
Quarterbacks Dequan Finn (ankle) and Tucker Gleason (hand) both suffered injuries of varying severity in the latter stages of the regular season, but Finn appears ready to start in Boca Raton after advancing to the MAC championship game. When he was on the field, Finn was very productive, accounting for a MAC-best 30 total touchdowns — 22 passing, eight rushing.
Finnell and Jacque Stewart make for a great backfield tandem, both entering this game with over 600 rushing yards. Stewart leads the way with 659 and he averages over six yards per carry. When Finney takes to the air, he’ll have a wide array of targets to choose from, as five different Rockets have led the team in yardage in at least one game this season. Wide receiver Jerjuan Newton was first on that list with six games of more than 16 yards per reception, posting team-high regular-season totals in receptions (48), yards (788) and touchdowns (nine). . When Newton isn’t the first option, look for teammates Devin Maddox and Jamal Turner to be the featured targets, thanks to Maddox (536) being next in yards after Newton, and Turner (eight) just one touchdown behind Maddox. team leader
And just as Toledo’s defense showed a knack for setting up and Liberty turned the ball over time after time, the other side of the ball is almost no different. Toledo’s recurring theme is right in the hands — literally — of the Flames defense, which has produced 23 tackles (14 INTs, nine fumble recoveries) and ranks in the top 20 in the nation. The Rockets will also have to be aware of Liberty’s constant pressure, as evidenced by an FBS-high 9.1 tackles for loss per game and 41 sacks (tied for third).
Final analysis
The strengths and weaknesses of both teams — especially in the rotation department — make these teams somewhat of a mirror image, so the rotation battle will be a deciding factor in the final outcome on Tuesday. The hot start will also be key for the Liberty to secure their fourth Cup win in as many seasons. Only two of the Flames’ 12 games this season have been tied going into halftime. In the remaining 10, the team leading the dressing room received the W.
Prediction: Liberty 28, Toledo 26
Podcasts: Remembering Mike Leach, previewing bowl games Dec. 16-21, recapting the Heisman race and Ryan Walters’ Purdue recruit
— Written by Juan Jose Rodriguez, part of the Athlon Contributor Network and a 2019 graduate of the University of Notre Dame. Rodriguez was an intern for Athlon in the summer of 2017 and has worked for various media outlets on campus, including as editor-in-chief Scholastic Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @JuanJoseRG02.
*Price as of publication date.
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